I have some new numbers that I thought I would pass on. I believe these numbers support a couple of things:
- Social distancing and more extreme preventative measures work to stop the rapid spread of the virus
- A small percentage of the total population will be infected if point number 1 is followed and then we social distance still thereafter until the virus either slows, we have drugs to help stop the elderly and immune compromised individuals from dying, and/or we have an anti-virus.
- The cruise ship, The Diamond Princess, should serve as a warning for what could happen if we do not maintain our preventative measures.
INFECTION RATE DATA
Zero countries are anywhere near a 1% infection rate for their total population. I only did 33 countries, but the top 10 I have tracked since March 16th and then added top infection countries as they populated with some targeted specific countries of interest due to their lack of robust healthcare system such as Somolia, Congo, Philippines (over 7200 islands) and Iraq. Almost all are .05% or less infection rate for their total population except for:
- Italy (.11%)
- Spain (.09%)
- Switzerland (.10%)
- Austria (.06%)
- Diamond Princess (19.19%)
I do not believe that there are higher infection rates in those not tracked based on the correlation of the numbers as I go through the WHO’s dashboard tracker. That is where my data comes from for the tracker. Populations are rough estimates based on quick Bing searches. If I have old data then it makes the infection rate higher, not lower, so the same conclusions still apply.
For the US specifically, if the numbers stay consistent with what has happened in Italy and China then we will see the total number of those infected quickly hit next week to almost 100K. Specifically 99,113 with 1,288 people dead as a result. But this is only if we continue to do social distancing and minimize non-essential contact as much as possible in our communities.
THE DIAMOND PRINCESS WARNING
The warning of the Diamond Princess cruise ship is glaringly obvious. When this thing is allowed to run freely then the infection rate is far worse. However, they had a low percentage of fatalities at .98%. I believe this is because most on the ship were probably healthy overall and not suffering from an underlying condition or in the over 60 crowd. I need data on that though to back up that claim. Still, if 19.19% of America is infected that is roughly 64 million people. With our current fatality rate plus 1% that is almost 2 million people dead. The problem with that number is that our hospitals will be unable to meet the high demand for those who need ventilators and other treatments. I believe our fatality rate would hit that of Italy’s easily, at almost 10% is 6.4 million people dead.
So please, if our country does reopen for business as normal, do not resume your normal lifestyle. Maintain social distancing and follow preventative guidelines. You will be glad you did and so will my special needs son, granddad, in-laws and parents, all of whom are in the high risk category for dying due to complications if they get the virus.
Thanks for reading. Sorry for the number heavy post but I think it is important and helps make an informed decision.